TRADITION PAYS 11/19/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

THE Monday before Thanksgiving has a track record that favors the bull.  Today did not disappoint.  After an early short  the market flash a long at the SB.  The alert was issued, day done, so to speak.

alert: longs 68.75 and shorts 66.25 for PA BO opportunity.

The long buyers were likely to get +10-12, which in this case took us to the BO-10 area.  Sideways action and a new HL buy for the next BO move for the bulls.  The final exit was the PM high.

THE WORKING CHART

a 50CB at B2 was the next controlling point from the AM long.  At the 50CB, I like to watch for a test of the horizontal ( a FBO tends to continue the prior trend, resist, where a BO tends to be a great reversal) and watch the 45 degree (bull or bear).  Today, PA followed that 45TL until we had a PA correction to the .382 from the high.  Same point for the new buy signal that gave the new push to to BO 15 and the bulls exit.

WEEKLY LOOK

At the lower channel TL, hit the daily 50CB target around 1340 and seeing a buy signal, similar to the HL buy that continued the bull bias.  Time to celebrate!  But...

My gut feeling is that we will see a new low test before the actual bull rebound.  Friday and Monday were aided by temporary news.  Let congress and the President stall on the "cliff" and we push down again as new fears of a recession appear.  This fear is needed.  A substantial bull (or a bottom different view) is developed when there is wide spread fear.  By the time the general population catches on, the pros are well entrenched  at better prices.

ANOTHER LOOK

THIS view, we see the buy again at the bear channel low and a BO to run to test a key resistance level.  This is likely to push back into the channel and deplete the "news" buyers and allow the pros a better entry point.  A double low shake out, doom and gloom, makes for an interesting point to build the next bull leg,

WEEK ENDING 11/16/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

This is the first post since October.  November has been a personal trying month, and the markets have been fantastic.  Both causing the need for time to reflect, repair. and look forward.


Friday 11/16


Overnight trading had settled in a range.  Earlier we (assumes chat crowd followed) took shorts in the 49 zone.  As the Euro zone developed. PA would test highs around 52 and back to 45 lows.  By early morning US we were at highs again and saw a reversal run the range to establish new lows.  We eventually got the discussed  daily 50CB around 1340.  This was a support level on the daily chart.

Buys there led to a range run back to the BO 5 level from the pre-open.  A 50% retrace back to the triple bar 50CB area created a HL which again offered a nice return for bull longs.

A small wedge, followed by a larger wedge,


DAILY

We still have a gap from current PA to the last 50CB  bearish TL.  The TL is roughly a 45 degree TL (bull or bear) from the 50CB point.

This has bulls struggling against heavy resistance at the prior august 3rd 50CB, and the more recent one of  November 7th..  Upper resistance is at 1365, 1370, and the TL 1375.

Given the current economic and political climate, the market is likely to reverse the Friday positives to put in a double bottom test of the 1340.  Whether up or down, we are in a zone that likely will see continued testing- lateral PA in a narrow range-  before it can break out.

WEEK IN REVIEW 8/24/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

 8/20/12

8/21/12

8/22/12

8/23/12

8/24/12

A LOOK AT BoT S/R LEVELS 8/10/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM


ALL BoT lines removed, all text, etc.  Just a clean look at a play being developed:  the BoT support/resistance entry.


BSR:

1.  look for trend, bull , bear, sideways
2.  look for double signals only.  They will be current support/resistance
3.  long above resistance
4.  Short below support
5.  look for entry to play a PB to a prior level.
6.  In trending day, consider partial exit with runner to higher signal area(s).

RANGE BOUND & WAITING FOR A BO 8/10/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM


Price Action (PA) started at the Long BoT LB but failed  to run the range to the Short.   Hindsight, did not start at the open,  B2-3 was a PB continuation short just above the LB.  B2 had other information;  it showed bull support above the short bias at the SB and was an aggressive entry for a long.  The risk was a move to the SB.


Bars 5, 6, and 8 were rule entries for longs with an additional long rule at b10.  Exits were seen just below and at the BO5 level ( LB+5 points).


An ascending triangle developed with a top at the BO5 level.  More sideways PA with a slight bull bias (running about LB+3) and testing the BO5 with multiple hits to finally break in the late afternoon.


Once we have a break, the focus is on a run to the BO10.  B45 buyers would want a +5 trade which gets us to 1401.5 area.  the BO10 was at 1403.25.  Two reasons to support the run.


An interesting PA developed around the bar 71-74 area.  We have bear resistance around 1400.25 and, as it turned out, roughly the 50CB level of bar 75 bull.  This creates two Limit Entry opportunities to watch:


1.  The RF play.  Did not have a name for the play but it was noticed by another, so give credit where earned.  The first option enter a buy above B74 bear (short/sell) resistance signal.  This allows an opportunity for a BO play.  Your stop would be the most recent prior bull 50CB not tested.  In this case, the EMA or B68 50CB (98.75) or the BO5 at 1398.25.


2.  The second option would be to respect the resistance and enter a short  below B74 with a stop above the resistance per your limits.

TEST LEVELS VS. FBO LEVELS 8/2/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

WE have seen two selling back to the 1270 area with rebounds.  The problem was the rebound, it simple could not hold about the Long BoT nor the aggressive short that developed Wednesday.  (see prior post).

[07:42]  with the continued stress on the lower level and a failure to exceed the upper BoT, it seems that the lower must be broken in another test to extract all sellers until a firm bull support can be detected.  News continues, and it has not been positive.  The FED inaction, while neutral in content, was not neutral for the market.  Earnings will not pull this out until a firmer bottom support is found.




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If hope, EuroZone News. and US News pushed the market up, then no "new" news  will act like negative news and push the market down,  This is nothing new.  Market will always seek a better price entry for bulls and bears.  While 1370 was nice for two days, the bulls would need a lower support to garner interest.  That support is around the seemingly magical 1350.

60 Minute Look:

B23-24 formed a MAXT, a PA exhaustion pattern that will often reverse, and in this case, the reversal continued to develop a bearish Control Bar.  The best bulls could do?  Test the 50CB level and sell again to a lower support that found bulls at 1352-54.

30 minute chart:

Similar, yet  a better view for the MAXT that reversed two bars and broke Bot levels.  Again, a 50CB test and FBO , with additional selling to support.

5 minute look:

Failure at the upper range and the Aggressive Short.  By the US open the damage was done, and bulls could only test the 50CB level.  All these point to the importance of a 24 hour look rather than Rth charting.  Charts are 24 hour.  Anything less simple does not tell the full story.

RANGE RUN BO AT THE OPEN 7/24/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

TODAY was a range run break out day from the open.  A selling TL ran from B1 to B45 where we see the next selling signal.  As Pa continued the sell off, the EMA was repeatedly tested and held the bulls in check.  mid way down the TL we say a MAXT  reversal.  In this case, a failed run by bulls at the EMA, a continuation of the bear trend.

A late rally stalled and we had a massive control bar (CB) of nearly 10 points.

 
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