RANGE BOUND: SB TO BO-5 4/30/12

APRIL ends with PA in the pre open in a PB to the SB.  It fails at the upper TL of the bear channel and continues for a nice Short run to the BO-5 level.

B7 was a nice support bounce back to the SB and a test of the B3 50CB.  The CB's and the EMA seem to hold PA for hours as we trading in a smaller range with  rising triangle developing.  We were looking for another B& type run higher, but the bears still needed a few more points as they pushed 2 points below the BO-5 to find support.

PA back to the SB.

RANGE BOUND DAY: LONG +2 TO SHORT +2 4/27/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

A range bound day that began with a range run after a pre open LBBO reversed.  the SBBO hit about +2 and it too reversed for another range run to the LB.   Toward the end, PA played with the B1 range before closing slightly down.

Some comments from today:


[08:20] <CM> for those present pa in euro zone moved back inside yday bot levels around 4 am est we had a new lbbo which is hitting at +10. current bot levels are long-1401 mid 97.75 short 95.25
[08:22] <CM> last buy signals 96.5-97 7:45 area
[08:31] <CM> rr selling
01[08:35] <CM> most of this appears as profit taking and the release of Italian bond auction
01[08:39] <CM> will let news settle and look for new ops
01[08:53] <CM> ms held buyers back in




01[09:39] <CM> failure at lb    rr shorts at us open

01[09:43] <CM> this should cont for the rr    at mb now
01[09:46] <CM> the issue  we had earnings pushing PA up  now euro news will pb   also first attack on 1400  and bears defending   bull will challenge again,   remains to be seen if today  generally believe a fbo at one end runs and breaks the other  so 1401-97.75-95.25 expected..


01[09:51] <CM> here stp to 97.5 just below mb  there is the chance pa bounces at the low  and we end up with a range bound day  if so  we play the rr not bo's
01[09:53] <CM> the sh was 4 bars prior to open 1400.75 below the lb
01[09:53] <CM>   there is thr range run b5 completed
01[09:54] <CM> 95.75 part bal stp at 96.75  continues to push dn
01[09:55] <CM> buyer interest noted at the sb
01[09:56] <CM> and we exit all 
01[09:56] <CM> nice 1pb bar right at the sb

 And the day continued with trades favored in the range run, not the break outs.

RANGE RUN BO DAY 4/26/12

PRE-OPEN PA pulled back to y-day LB then ran the SB for a nice range run day finally breaking the LB and hitting a BO-5.

Long were suggested at 84.5, 86. and 88.

RANGE BOUND WITH EXCITEMENT 4/25/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM


LAST evening the AAPL news was completed.  Earnings from all corners seem better.  We spoke about this in a prior post.  With expectations muted, any good news would rally the market. In the late afternoon US trading it was suggested that there may be an interest to long AAPL; either stock or calls.

PA pushed higher and leveled off until the Euro Zone open, running from the 1375 area to 1380+ then settling into a range bound area around 1378.

The reason the Global look is preferred over the Rth chart:  PA is continuous from market opens on Sunday evening until the close Friday evening.  Astute traders watch what happens before the open.  Today was no disappointment.  PA hit the SB and ran the range.  By the US Open, there was a LBBO which was playable as well.  PA continued for the BO-5 level at 1386.  With an end of the day close at one point higher, the initial open action settled into a range bound day between the LB and the BO5.

Key points:

Early range run and a break out to the +5 level that hit selling resistance.

Bear channel back to the LB support.  PA began to show a slight gap above the LB and was trapping between the LB and the upper channel TL.

Support wins; a BO of the channel (after the FCHBO) PA run back to the +5 area.

Another sell off back to support where buyers returned for a three push run to break the 1386 resistance.

Yes, the trapping sideways action is trying, and will lead some to try other instruments.  Keep working on your trades. Planned entries and exits in any market will more than make up for brief "no trade zone" action.

WHAT KIND OF DAY WAS IT? 4/24/12

WHAT kind of day was it?

 From a PA look, it was mostly range bound trading with a pop early in after hours as more positive earnings news was released.

With the 24 hour BOT look, BOTs were the same for  today and we had a pre-open push just below the LB for a long entry that ran for a BO5 and then a BO10 run.

For the US only BOT data (trial run today) we had an 8AM EST range run that flip just above the SB.  PA ran the range back to 1367 and then to the BO5 level.

FROZEN BOT LOOK

US OPEN LOOK

DATA FOR TODAY

Under both scenarios,  the BOT points exceed the market open to close total.

NEARLY PERFECT RANGE DAY 4/23/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

WAS watching the PA last evening /early AM.  mentioned that 1372 was the right side support.  It broke for a BO5 and BO10 sell off.

At the US open, we are back to a range bound day.  An early range run from long to short, and an early SBBO test.  B1 completed the range run and was the 1BO challenge of the SB.  In hindsight, B2-3 FBO of the Middle BOT and the EMA was a low risk short, and would  be in a better position to hold the SB break.  But, as trading sometimes goes. the support of the SB was sufficient to wait for the 1PB to short, and that was B5 at 57.5.  Good for a SBBO +3.

Bulls were entering at the B10 TL with an expectation that PA would reverse and run the range.  This proved to be valid and had additional buying opportunity at B56-57 with EOD exits at 62.5.


At a SBBO of -4 and the range run LBBO to +2 the day was a nearly perfect range day.

EARLY START TO THE WEEKEND 4/20/12

TAKING an early start to the weekend.  Will have a daily review later.

The BOT levels for the US market are:

[07:08] <CM> off day early start to the weekend fri bot levels 81.25-78.75-76 favors a test of 84-86 area lbbo5


Those privy to the EOD BOTs that developed saw the range run and saw the LBBO5 and 10 hit in the after hours and Euro Zone trading.

4/19/12    [15:45] <CM> and here is the new bot bo (also a range run) at the low of day  (chart deleted)

EXPANDED RANGE DAY 4/19/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

Early AM pre US Open seemed to favor a LBBO.  Either a long or a short BO would expand the range

Today, scattering some comments from chat as market developed.

[07:49] <CM> bots unchanged sb longs in ct but with range dynamics supported in all mkts (chart deleted)


[07:55] <CM> bias today seems to fav a lbbo but alert for a sbbo5 both would show an expansion of the range (unchanged as of this am)
[08:00] <CM> tf breaking ema +2 points from signal es +3 nq +6 ym +20 from signal


 <CM> gm all prior range run completed b1 range was in lower sector all mkts hit lows and reversed 2nd time for range run again per earlier stmt bias appears long today (link deleted)


We always look for the expected, and the surprise.  Today the market began to tell another story early in the trading day.


cm room post only  now for the other story  yes bias is long  but note from pic on 5m es  we are in a downward channel from 4:35 am est area  1384 roughly top of that channel  if news is crappy  look to short below ema  bottom channel roughly 75.5-76
 we play what is given..  (chart deleted)
 holding long exit at 50cb of b3  80.5 still in profit and enough room to reverse orders for a mkt flip

AND IT DID, with targets at the lower end of the channel.

[10:02] <CM> testing target again mkts selling
[10:04] <CM> 75-76 t1 

B8-9
 nice clean out to 76  some covering after an extended bar
win win stp at sb target at bo5
 prior discussion a bo l/s will expand the range  still in a range bound mode..
 x part 76.50 still seeing some covering here






 thinking lod in fsbbo5 ema at sb and buyers trying to recover b7 also back inside b1 range we are still range bound just a bigger range now.. long here has -2 risk v +8 upside 1leg pb to ema es 5m


 expecting 85.5-86





ANOTHER RANGE RUN TO THE LB

 see exits at the lb
 <X> yes
 range run completed  (chart deleted)





B25-26

 long now for the hl bounce at the sb  the stop is 4t below the sb  


 for instance  79l stop at 78
with a +1 to 5t exit  trade makes $ (pays comm tax etc)  so a be bal or a be+1-3t is a win-win
so this trade although appears ct for pa, IT is sound under the bots  

 b27 new buyers join the mkt assures a positive trade  -chart deleted
clearer here w/tick chart added  -chart deleted







STOP MOVED TO +2 AND NOTICED A LH.  HMM, THE
'DICK TRACY"  WE WERE HEADING LOW, MUCH LOWER

 bal stop was at +2  had not adjusted
 since you were looking at terms this looks like dick tracy  right side drops lower  b30-32  deeper than 18-23


 target 75 

 ok the bias early am posting was toward long as the sb was holding  when the bo stalled at b16-19 area  the range run was showing a short bias.  if one bot or a bo5 fails to hit it is believed that the pa will run to the opposite
 ie we did not get long bo5  so we should see the short bo5
 ding sbbo5 







BOT 10 BUYERS AT THE BOUNCE

 73 buyers
 signal and a reversal of the prior tick cb  at a bo5, lod so a low risk long trial around  -chart deleted
 those may be overlaps  but I'm not sure how that term is used 


 1 leg pb to ema  xpart 76.5 wait for leg2  stp at 74.5 


 the 5m was stalling at ema  but it takes time to verify.  the tick chart was already showing a sell pb so the stop sold open positions to stay win-win


 t1 was the ema 5m 







AND THE END OF THE DAY......

[14:26] <CM>  with that tracy move and the break of the sb  we have bo5  next target bo10 at 68.75 


[14:48] <CM> eod look  since it seems we have some support between bo10 and bo15  increased bias (no stats so cant really say probability) of a pb to around bo5  mkt close in the 71-73 area 


The end to another exciting day.

OFF TOMORROW FOR AN EARLY WEEKEND.........................

RANGE BOUND MEANS PLAY RANGE RUNS 4/18/12

RAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAANGE  BOOOOOOOOOUND.....

Range bound days can be very trying for the trader.  Stalling moves, whip candles, waiting for a signal. OR, not playing at all.  The range today was some 5 points, yet we had four completed range runs.  Not bad for a range bound day.

There is something about waiting, when many want the fast score.

RANGE BOUND & THE NEXT MARKET 4/17/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM


YESTERDAY  the discussion centered around playing a range bound day.  Until a new BOT range (one of significant in the calculation) develops, the current range will continue to be the focus.


from last evening:   [23:33] <CM> hold for 62 area (chart deleted)


A fellow trader was shorting 64 and 64.25 area.  The target would be a completion of the BO-5 level  and a hold for 62 should be profitable.  SBBO-5 hits and market PA reverses for a range run in the Euro Zone.

An early start for a nice day for trading, or simple a chance to walk away and enjoy the day in the States, the evening in Europe....


Trading information logs are maintained at:


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http://cmtrading-chartmaster.blogspot.com/ 


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US MARKET UPDATE   6:15 PM EST


RANGE BOUND  is PA consolidation and an extended BO is expected.  The long BOT broke  and PA was testing the BO-5 level at the US Open.  The extended run continued toward the BO20 level, where PA stalled and the anticipated 5 point PB developed.

RANGE BOUND: LOOK FOR RANGE RUNS 4/16/12

IN  a range bound day, the BO's are limited and the range runs will often be the better trade.  We will also expect extended periods of flat or sideways action which is dangerous/difficult to play and has a tendency to frazzle the nerves of traders involved.   Today's range was extended to BO5+ to BO5-.

BO5 long hit pre open for the US Market, reversed for a range run and left a gap to the SB BO5.  All subsequent test of the low ended with higher gaps.  PA ran the range (long then short) ending the day around the SB.

When trading, and especially in a range bound day, it is important to find buyers/sellers entering the market.  This can be analyzed over time frames or over markets.  The thought is,  enter/exit when they do.  Like a dance, you do not want to be first (nor only) person on the floor, and should you be a bit clumsy or awkward, wait for a crowded floor. Crowds can move PA and compensate you for not so perfect entries, albeit given enough time, you will most likely self destruct your account.

ENTRIES AND EXITS ACROSS MARKETS

STEPPING BACK TO SEE THE BIG PICTURE 4/13/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

DAILY BOTS:    1358.5        1383.75       1403.75      FOR THE WEEK




Last evening in after hours there was a nice sell off after PA max at the 88.5 area,  The three bar run then stalled and some PB targets were established for the NQ, YM, TF, and the ES.  Those hit, but the big picture was the max run.


Some days it will seem the market is unstable, unreadable.  It is times like that (actually good anytime) pull your chart back (reduce bar spacing) to see the bigger picture.  I know people play the Rth charts, and I find no fault in that.  Trade what fits your trading style.  But the Rth for the US misses the bigger picture in my opinion.


I was showing trading to a newbie at the open.  He understood trends but had no clue what to do at the open.  Two bars down then two bars going back up, albeit b4 did close bearish,  Then the big picture:  the obvious was a deep retrace of the prior bull run started at the max.  B5 we short and waited; PA moved for a SBBO-5


Pa for the bulls reached a +5 from the Mid Level on the daily before news began to unravel the run.  Too close, PA read can be difficult.  Take a step back, and see the big picture.  Often it makes a noticeable difference.


Final view, PA was back to where we began the longs: 63.5 area.  Holders at break even, traders very happy.




BIG PICTURE

US Market

AFTER RANGE DAY BULL BO 4/12/12

DISCUSSED last evening, but yesterday's stagnant narrow range was a setup for a bull BO day.  Longs were entering around 1363 for the range run.  The targets were in play and provided to chat members:

[15:53] <CM> upside targets 67.75-70.25-74.5 


LAST EVENING

The mid range flag resolved, and PA continued for the LB target.  When we have a narrow range day, the BOT levels will often go unchanged.  The calculated difference is not significant to change the levels.




EURO ZONE

PA remained strong in the upper range, and had a three push LBBO before returning for a range run.  This failure to break beyond 1372.5.  While winning trades were available, essentially we come into the US Open within the range.  There was a clue however in the SBBO around 9:00 AM EST.  Buyers were still strong around 1363.  A range run that stalls after the BO is thought to return for a range run, and a range run would clearly give the bulls an opportunity for profit.


THE US MARKET

The range run was strong at the open.  The first pull back (1PB) was followed by runs to 3 higher levels.  Ranges hit and hit and hit.

Look back to the commentary in the weekly outlook:  note the daily BOT range.