TRADITION PAYS 11/19/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

THE Monday before Thanksgiving has a track record that favors the bull.  Today did not disappoint.  After an early short  the market flash a long at the SB.  The alert was issued, day done, so to speak.

alert: longs 68.75 and shorts 66.25 for PA BO opportunity.

The long buyers were likely to get +10-12, which in this case took us to the BO-10 area.  Sideways action and a new HL buy for the next BO move for the bulls.  The final exit was the PM high.

THE WORKING CHART

a 50CB at B2 was the next controlling point from the AM long.  At the 50CB, I like to watch for a test of the horizontal ( a FBO tends to continue the prior trend, resist, where a BO tends to be a great reversal) and watch the 45 degree (bull or bear).  Today, PA followed that 45TL until we had a PA correction to the .382 from the high.  Same point for the new buy signal that gave the new push to to BO 15 and the bulls exit.

WEEKLY LOOK

At the lower channel TL, hit the daily 50CB target around 1340 and seeing a buy signal, similar to the HL buy that continued the bull bias.  Time to celebrate!  But...

My gut feeling is that we will see a new low test before the actual bull rebound.  Friday and Monday were aided by temporary news.  Let congress and the President stall on the "cliff" and we push down again as new fears of a recession appear.  This fear is needed.  A substantial bull (or a bottom different view) is developed when there is wide spread fear.  By the time the general population catches on, the pros are well entrenched  at better prices.

ANOTHER LOOK

THIS view, we see the buy again at the bear channel low and a BO to run to test a key resistance level.  This is likely to push back into the channel and deplete the "news" buyers and allow the pros a better entry point.  A double low shake out, doom and gloom, makes for an interesting point to build the next bull leg,

WEEK ENDING 11/16/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

This is the first post since October.  November has been a personal trying month, and the markets have been fantastic.  Both causing the need for time to reflect, repair. and look forward.


Friday 11/16


Overnight trading had settled in a range.  Earlier we (assumes chat crowd followed) took shorts in the 49 zone.  As the Euro zone developed. PA would test highs around 52 and back to 45 lows.  By early morning US we were at highs again and saw a reversal run the range to establish new lows.  We eventually got the discussed  daily 50CB around 1340.  This was a support level on the daily chart.

Buys there led to a range run back to the BO 5 level from the pre-open.  A 50% retrace back to the triple bar 50CB area created a HL which again offered a nice return for bull longs.

A small wedge, followed by a larger wedge,


DAILY

We still have a gap from current PA to the last 50CB  bearish TL.  The TL is roughly a 45 degree TL (bull or bear) from the 50CB point.

This has bulls struggling against heavy resistance at the prior august 3rd 50CB, and the more recent one of  November 7th..  Upper resistance is at 1365, 1370, and the TL 1375.

Given the current economic and political climate, the market is likely to reverse the Friday positives to put in a double bottom test of the 1340.  Whether up or down, we are in a zone that likely will see continued testing- lateral PA in a narrow range-  before it can break out.

WEEK IN REVIEW 8/24/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

 8/20/12

8/21/12

8/22/12

8/23/12

8/24/12

A LOOK AT BoT S/R LEVELS 8/10/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM


ALL BoT lines removed, all text, etc.  Just a clean look at a play being developed:  the BoT support/resistance entry.


BSR:

1.  look for trend, bull , bear, sideways
2.  look for double signals only.  They will be current support/resistance
3.  long above resistance
4.  Short below support
5.  look for entry to play a PB to a prior level.
6.  In trending day, consider partial exit with runner to higher signal area(s).

RANGE BOUND & WAITING FOR A BO 8/10/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM


Price Action (PA) started at the Long BoT LB but failed  to run the range to the Short.   Hindsight, did not start at the open,  B2-3 was a PB continuation short just above the LB.  B2 had other information;  it showed bull support above the short bias at the SB and was an aggressive entry for a long.  The risk was a move to the SB.


Bars 5, 6, and 8 were rule entries for longs with an additional long rule at b10.  Exits were seen just below and at the BO5 level ( LB+5 points).


An ascending triangle developed with a top at the BO5 level.  More sideways PA with a slight bull bias (running about LB+3) and testing the BO5 with multiple hits to finally break in the late afternoon.


Once we have a break, the focus is on a run to the BO10.  B45 buyers would want a +5 trade which gets us to 1401.5 area.  the BO10 was at 1403.25.  Two reasons to support the run.


An interesting PA developed around the bar 71-74 area.  We have bear resistance around 1400.25 and, as it turned out, roughly the 50CB level of bar 75 bull.  This creates two Limit Entry opportunities to watch:


1.  The RF play.  Did not have a name for the play but it was noticed by another, so give credit where earned.  The first option enter a buy above B74 bear (short/sell) resistance signal.  This allows an opportunity for a BO play.  Your stop would be the most recent prior bull 50CB not tested.  In this case, the EMA or B68 50CB (98.75) or the BO5 at 1398.25.


2.  The second option would be to respect the resistance and enter a short  below B74 with a stop above the resistance per your limits.

TEST LEVELS VS. FBO LEVELS 8/2/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

WE have seen two selling back to the 1270 area with rebounds.  The problem was the rebound, it simple could not hold about the Long BoT nor the aggressive short that developed Wednesday.  (see prior post).

[07:42]  with the continued stress on the lower level and a failure to exceed the upper BoT, it seems that the lower must be broken in another test to extract all sellers until a firm bull support can be detected.  News continues, and it has not been positive.  The FED inaction, while neutral in content, was not neutral for the market.  Earnings will not pull this out until a firmer bottom support is found.




Get market news before the market with the Bot Newsletter.



If hope, EuroZone News. and US News pushed the market up, then no "new" news  will act like negative news and push the market down,  This is nothing new.  Market will always seek a better price entry for bulls and bears.  While 1370 was nice for two days, the bulls would need a lower support to garner interest.  That support is around the seemingly magical 1350.

60 Minute Look:

B23-24 formed a MAXT, a PA exhaustion pattern that will often reverse, and in this case, the reversal continued to develop a bearish Control Bar.  The best bulls could do?  Test the 50CB level and sell again to a lower support that found bulls at 1352-54.

30 minute chart:

Similar, yet  a better view for the MAXT that reversed two bars and broke Bot levels.  Again, a 50CB test and FBO , with additional selling to support.

5 minute look:

Failure at the upper range and the Aggressive Short.  By the US open the damage was done, and bulls could only test the 50CB level.  All these point to the importance of a 24 hour look rather than Rth charting.  Charts are 24 hour.  Anything less simple does not tell the full story.

RANGE RUN BO AT THE OPEN 7/24/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

TODAY was a range run break out day from the open.  A selling TL ran from B1 to B45 where we see the next selling signal.  As Pa continued the sell off, the EMA was repeatedly tested and held the bulls in check.  mid way down the TL we say a MAXT  reversal.  In this case, a failed run by bulls at the EMA, a continuation of the bear trend.

A late rally stalled and we had a massive control bar (CB) of nearly 10 points.

 
Additional commentary can be found on Mirc at #Chartmaster

BOT 101: RANGE BOUND RANGE RUN DAY 7/23/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

BOT 101: when a break out at 5 points fails, expect a pullback to the BO level followed by a range run to test the opposite BOT level.  In a range bound day, PA will be contained by the BO5 levels.

Well, at least that is what we had today.  The SB5 held and we saw across the markets buy signals at the B5 and B10 double bottom base.


[10:17] <CM> b5 signals across 5m mkts
[10:18] <CM> putting in a base roughly 1333 771.4 2548 12535


[10:39] <CM> per bot-o-tology  a fbo of sb5 likely  to see range pb to sb  range run to lb 42.25  we end up with a range bound day..


And so it was...

SELLING CHANNEL TO THE +10 LEVEL 7/20/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

WHEN we look at yesterday's sellers, their support level dropped.  When we look at buyers, their support level stayed constant.  When that support broke, PA  drifted lower in a bearish channel to the SB10.

The channel offered both buys and sells.  Only the B16 buy signaled across the other markets and this was shared in the chat room:

  [10:41] <CM> s/w pa from 8am est  h's and l's  61-65 range  expiration day    another tight range to play..  next entry must be signal across all mkts..

[10:48] <CM> b16 1:4  1 of 4
[10:50] <CM> 2:4
[10:50] <CM> b17 3:4
[11:04] <CM> back at t1

The long ran back to the T1 (target 1) for the exit.  The last respectable long as PA pushed down another 5 points and entered a narrow trading range to end the day and week.

RANGE BOUND DAY: BOT +/- 2 POINTS 7/19/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM


THE story  is about watching a professional walk across Niagara Falls on a tightrope.  Over and back, over and back with no problems.  Then he goes over and back with a wheel barrow.  Then asks you to get in the wheel barrow....


Watching is paper trading.  Good for the mechanics, how to use the tools.  But  not even close to the ride in the wheel barrow, where it gets real; the risk and the reward.


Get in.  Focus on your charts, the PA entry and exit strategies. not the dom frantically trying to take every order.  Play the chart, not the +/- in the dollar window.


****************************************************************************


Today was a range bound day, and was noted as such early.   Also noted that today was likely a +/- 2 points from key levels (the BOT).  No fancy quotes from the chat room tonight.  If you want the information, join us on Mirc at #Chartmaster.


Instead, here is the chart with notes added.  T1 and T2 were targets for trades.  Tight trading days are contracting in nature and will be more difficult to play than break out expansion days.  Difficult, but profitable........

MARKET BUY SIGNALS BEFORE THE NEWS 7/18/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM                                Mirc chat   #Chartmaster


EARNINGS Reports continue positive and Housing flashed a surprised improvement.  Well, when rates are at all time lows, positive news should kick in sooner or later.

Interestingly, the BOT System flashed buys around 8:50 AM EST across all markets, and we were at a BOT support.  Signal and support:  you do not have to twist my arm very much to act!.  Similar to yesterday we had a a large move at the open as PA pushed toward the LB5.


Special note:  to streamline terms, Long Bot Break Out (LBBO-5) will now be referred to as LB5, LB10, etc.  Breaks of the Short Bot will be recorded as SB5, SB10, etc.


The market information was posted in #Chartmaster:


[09:12] <CM> 1357 to 52.75 since mid euro zone trading  looking for a long bias going into us open   52.75-54.75
[09:14] <CM> 8:50 am est buy signals across mkts
[09:18] <CM> short interest at 52.25  outside the buy range



B1 offered a PB into the buy range, and the PB at B3-4 offered add-on or new longs.


[09:30] <CM> b1 pb in bullish trend
[09:35] <CM> and opening trade is completed  http://screencast.com/t/g8wyjy6dMh
[09:36] <CM> http://screencast.com/t/3fUyOO1r
[09:47] <CM> long taking exits 58.75-59.75
[09:53] <CM> the pb was your opportunity for a new long..
[09:53] <CM> t=62.5


The target was set at 1362.5 for exit consideration.  The LB10 was at 1364.5.


We had a 50CB TL develop off B5 that was a LB5 BO bar.  That bullish TL was the support behind longs to the LB15 where PA stalled and was considered an extended run for the day.

[11:37] <CM> 80 later  about maxed for today (name deleted)  1369-70 upper reach  stalling here as you noted  

The TL was key here.  We had PA stalling at a BOT level and a TL reversal would run back to the prior level as a minimum (theory in BOTs).


[12:33] <CM> lb15 seems to be stalling and we do have signals across the mkts  but I'm reading this as long exits, not shorts entering.  again, the TL is the better option


[12:59] <CM>  if you extend the TL  pa TL and ema are about to meet..  a bo likely to pb to prior level 64.5 area  :)


At the end of the day we see another buy signal at a key level that was exited at new highs.

BOT RANGE RUN IN AN INVERTED H&S 7/17/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM                  find us on Mirc at #Chartmaster


TODAY the chart has a new twist: longer term BOT levels (multi-day) and the daily BOT levels.  Slight differences today, and a watch for future trading.

 Some notes on trading today as key areas were discussed to help traders decide on possible entries.  Actual entry advice can not be given, only "educational" discussions of market conditions.

[10:12] <CM> gm all  introducing a new term long term bot v day bot   LT-5  and SB-5  close  exits here for the shorts  entered earlier at LB  TL and SB  (link deleted)

Shorts had numerous opportunities:  the stalled LBBO, the break of the TL, the range reversal, and the SB itself.

[10:12] <CM> the LT is something I'm working on ie multi day bot levels
[10:14] <CM> 47.5 lower risk long
[10:15] <CM> bulls need to test 50cb of b7  roughly 49.5
[10:15] <CM> buyers around 45.5 b7-9
[10:16] <CM> also 50cb level approx area pa hits ema (estimate)

The 50CB area is an important level for bo's and failures that continue the prior trend.

[10:18] <CM> we also have +10 from the highs at 56-56.5
[10:19] <CM> 46.5 prime long  at sb-5  (actual SB-5 was 46.75)
[10:19] <CM> that is your long range entry points

[10:29] <CM> tight stop out of trade  (link deleted)
[10:30] <CM> and the chart view  (link deleted)
[10:31] <CM> if we count this as a 50cb fbo  pa should continue down  thus the importance of the tl's

[10:35] <CM> if you like bracket trading  L49 S-45  short target the bo-10  41.5-42.5
[10:35] <CM> it keeps you out of the thrashing
[10:37] <CM> correction sb-10 is 41.75
[10:40] <CM> ok fbo 50cb correct  (call) here is the LT-10 AND SB-10  EXIT WAS slightly higher to guarantee the trade (link deleted)

[11:04] <CM> playing the reversal  (link deleted)

[11:05] <CM> target prior buyers around 45-45.5 (link deleted)

1[11:11] <CM> txk (name deleted)  that "tightening" at the 15 level made me think pa was restricted to run much lower  and even so had tight stop  the reversal at the 10 level looks  like the reversal pattern yday  push bar w tail a reversal bar with a tail and a signal flashing

[11:12] <CM> also a failure (fbo or a stall) at the 10 level often reverses to the 5 level

[11:37] <CM> ema bo all lower risk longs

[11:39] <CM> 49-49.5 prior 50cb we were working  should hit  second target the sb 51.75

[11:41] <CM> sb-5  46.75    LT-5 47.5
[11:42] <CM> b26 close lower risk long

[11:47] <CM> first target exits

[11:50] <CM> could, thinking more up  b28-29 entries for the 50cb bo

[12:02] <CM> inverted H&S working (link deleted)

[12:17] <CM> mkt overview:  about +15 dn from the stalled lbbo at the open  pa ran the range and hit a sbbo  to +5  +10.  at the +10 we saw a reversal pattern developing for long considerations  upper target set and hit

[12:22] <CM> this close bulls want a test of the high  t1 56 t2  57.75  (target 1 & 2)
[12:23] <CM> day range w/b sb10 to lb5


LT5 and LB5 both hit as anticipated.

Another fine day for traders..

RANGE RUNS AFTER A SB-5 REVERSAL 7/16/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

NEW BOT Rangers were provide last evening that were still valid at the US Open.  We quickly had a Short  scenario at the Short BOT (SB) for an anticipated 5 point run to the SBBO-5 level, or SB-5.


Buyers were noted, and an advisory was released:

 [09:50] <CM> longer term time frames we are still sideways  we are looking at a pb to 42  a short +5 from the sb
[09:54] <CM> the issue is weak pa just below the prior lows  seeing this as a fbo reversal
[09:56] <CM> b5  cont trend and was a fbo rev attempt  bo-5 still target
[09:58] <CM> two targets  42.5 and 42  slight difference in pa calculations  current v longer term
[10:04] <CM> b7 buyers    sh stop to 45.75
[10:06] <CM> the target is unchanged but the buy strength was unknown  so move stop just about prior push  max profit in sh run  and get out if a bottom reversal

[10:08] <CM> b8 additional buyers noted  these can be exits at/near the bo-5  this is important to note  perhaps the sb5 will bottom and reverse

Well, PA did reverse and the PB was to the SB=EMA=PA and prior lows.  Next advisory, a range run was expected.

[10:30] <CM> pa got back to prior lows and ema  the expectation will be a range run  counting the pa at/near bo5 as a reversal
[11:01] <CM> target numbers  for longs  52-52.75  overnight bots 51.25-49.75-47.25  we continue to play in the lower part of the range

Two trade styles were presented: a well cap account and a moderate account.  You should develop a trading plan at 1-2 C's, then work your way up as you become successful.  Do not go ALL IN until 1) you trade the best trades consistently and 2) you get out of non performing trades with minimum risk exposure.

EARLY BREAK OUT DEVELOPS RANGE BOUND PA 6/25/12

A early break out in PA at the Short BOT range to a BO-5 and BO-10 level only to become range bound.  B1 and B2 50CB levels failed a B8 test by bulls, and it took until B34 for PA to return to the EMA.

New resistance developed around 1307.5 and support was found around 1303.5 as PA moved in the BO-5 to BO-10 range, with key reversals found in the B52, B64, and B74 areas.

MARKET GOES BULLISH 6/22/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

Friday, the day after the bank downgrade information and a extended bear sell off.  Not much was expected, as the market would try and play it safe as traders take an early weekend.


The market played with the BOT Range in the pre open and had developed a slow, grinding bull channel into the open hitting a double high around 26.5-27.  Then the PB into mid morning.


This is where the market became interesting again.  Highs (with sellers) and now a higher low (from the pre open) with buyers at the Short BOT level.  The market was going bullish. and later reached the long BO+5 level.

LONG BIAS PREVAILS 6/14/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

THE bias was long.  We had two LB test (actually LBBO-5) and 1 SB.  B1 set a range we were discussing, and there was a favorable close to B2.  But B3 presented a problem, so to speak.  Indecision.  Where was the selling follow through?   We had an established TL on top and now we were seeing a lower TL develop.  Signals at B3-4 sealed the deal.  This was 1 of 3 very important TL's working with the BOT Range and the BO's.


By B6 we see a 50CB develop that had a challenge that failed early on at B13.  This was TL #3 for the important TL's.  PA stalled at the BO-10 level and broke the 50CB TL in a PB to the BO-5 level only to find buyers at TL #2  and a buy signal.  Case closed.  Bulls ran and dumped on late arrivals.  Once the carnage was over, bulls again resumed their upward bias.

DOW TRIPLE: ES DOUBLE LONG OUTLOOK 6/12/12

LAST evening after a day of extended selling, something occurred that gave a clue to today's trading:  buyers at a prior support.

The market had heavy puts still open.  Logically with a large sell off one would expect some (most?) to exit with profits prior to expiration.  If so, market buyers would look for a beneficial entry point to play the next leg up.  They do not like buying high, giving preference to a pullback for a better entry.

Last evening they got that opportunity.

The outlook seemed obvious:  

[22:58] <CM> 60m  buyers at the support levels we discussed earlier  (chart link deleted)
[22:59] <CM> tomorrow:  dow triple digit move   es double digit


A little detour in the US Open with a range run BO short, that found support at the BO-5 level.  A little "shake (shake out traders) and Break" was in order before the longs again took control with a reversing range run and long BOT BO.

PA ends +10 for the long break out, more for those entering the reversal.

ENTENDED BEAR SELLING 6/11/12

6/10/12 open had a nice gap.  Unfortunately the Euro Zone trading began selling off the gain.  By the US open, we see a control bar in B1 that was never challenged.  A range run quickly developed and the gap was filled.

Selling broke lower and was followed by the 20 EMA.  SBBO to 5, 10, 15, and 20 followed.

BO BULL RUN: M OR U! 6/8/12

OK, time to rollover your contracts.  But for the first day or  two the contracts M and U have been fairly consistent, just different price levels.  Some times the volumes seem slow to develop at rollover, but U is grown up now.  Today was the last for the M.

M

U

 The only short was short lived.  The H&S did not develop from the HOD around b46.  Get out, move on. In the scheme of trading today, it did not have an adverse effect.  Follow the trend that never looked back...

BULLS CONTINUE FROM THE FLIP POINT 6/6/12

YESTERDAY we had an alert about long interest at 1272.5 and 1275; points where the market was poised to flip from selling to buying.  It did, and continued today for a LBBO-20 day.


Yesterday


[07:43] <CM> mkt still in a sell mode until we return back inside the range conservative longs 1275 aggressive 72.5 new ranges later

And he bull continues to run with a pre-open range run hitting the Mid BOT at the open and breaking the Long BOT.

BO RUN TO BO 6/5/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM


NON post days are recorded under the WEEK IN REVIEW page.


OK, I was planning a break.  But perfect storms are worth breaking silence . It did not take long for the suggested targets to play.  In fact, B1 of the US Open did it.


[07:43] <CM> mkt still in a sell mode until we return back inside the range conservative longs 1275 aggressive 72.5 new ranges later


+10 for both entry targets.

A GOOD TIME TO END 5/31/12

 BOT TRADING SYSTEM


5/31/12  THE end of the month and a good time to begin a break.  A break away so to speak,  It is time to move on, upward.  To go in a  new direction.

Each day, any trading vehicle will be bearish, neutral, or bullish.  The price action of that vehicle will find critical points where each position will be more favored than the others.

PA likes to test these key levels, and the +/- run points.  They are not pivots.  They are a psychological trading measures of where PA is likely to go, and if so, what it will likely do next.


The key levels are BOTs, Break Out Targets.  The BO or fade points are BO-5, BO-10 etc.  It is the authors opinion that these positions are favorable to trading and clearly keeps a stable perspective on the market Pa that minimizes, if not eliminates, the fear and greed so often referenced in trading dialogue.

Enough has been written for now.  Stating the obvious day after day seems monotonous, but it only seems obvious to those looking at the end of the day charts.  The real story, the BOTs are pre-market.

And that is sufficient to move on, because it is not time to reveal more.  With an eye on greener pastures, the move begins.....

SELLING REVERSES FOR RANGE RUNS 5/31/12

MAY ends with the US open at the EMA and the Mid BOT.  Selling continued to the  SBBO-10 where PA found support and a reversal for a range run to the Long BOT, a value no one considered possible.

The LB was the resistance, and sellers collected another 5 bar range run into the close.

Looking at the chart information above, this is how another trader used the data provided:

Similar action was seen across the markets as resistance hit and sellers took markets down at the close.

5/19 BULL STILL IN CHARGE 5/24/12

IS ES WEEKLY SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER BULL LEG? 5/19/12

 

YES.  The bull continued to play the ranges again in overnight and in the US market.   The BOTs were unchanged, with focus given to range runs in the BO5-10 areas and pullback support checks to the Long BOT.

We saw this in the after hours yesterday, and was discussed with traders in the Euro Zone.

BIGGER PICTURE

The two day look at PA trading with the BOT levels.  Each support PB allowed for another run long.

 

BIG PICTURE

The Euro Zone today had a nice PB check that found support at the Mid BOT before returning to the BO10 level.

By the US Open, we were shorting the BO10 PB to the BO5 level, followed by another 5-10 range run for a local double top and a PB to the LB by mid day.

PA had an extended stay at the support and finally gave the bulls another run to the BO10 followed by a BO15 effort in after hours.

New levels will be calculated for the US Open tomorrow.

RANGE BOUND-RANGE RUNS-BO'S 5/23/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

QUICK NOTES TODAY.  The US market opened inside the BOT range and quickly had a range run from the SB at B4-5 to the LB at B7.  A FBO tends to reverse and test the opposite level and has a new BO5 attempt.  Today, the LB failed, and we got the range run and the SBBO5.  Support was found just shy of the BO10 area (SB+9).    A FBO reversal to where?  The LB+9.

Range bound, range runs, BO5's.  Another BOTtastic day.

BO TO BO RANGE RUN DAY 5/22/12

THE market began bullish with a nearly complete range run to a BO+5 and nearly a BO+10.  The Mid Range today acted like a 50CB for B2 and longs entered B3 for the expected bull move.  B7 repeated for new bulls entering the Long BOT above the EMA.

The bull pasted the BO5 and stalled near the BO10.  We discussed a H&S pattern that would see strong sellers pushing PA back to 1320-1318.  The 3m and the %m both broke the EMA and found that short scenario target.

Longs regrouped at he LB support around B32-34 for a fresh run on the BO5.  PA traded in a narrow range with two failed range reversals and two failed break outs of the BO5.

B 65 closed at the low of the bar and bull bars B66 & 67 closed below the EMA followed by the bear b68.  This weakness continued with  the range reversal with a range run to the opposite level and a short BO5 hit.

Overall, an enjoyable trading day.

RANGE RUN AND LONG BREAK OUT 5/21/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

THE day after the "long opportunity" post did well, very well with a range run and long BOT break out that ran to +5, +10, and +15 over the day.

Aggressive longs entered on the 50CB of B5 (entered in B6).  The LB at 1300.25 was an auto entry and was followed  by longs at the B11 (entered in B12) first pull back after the LBBO.


Institutional buyers were seeing a long opportunity coming into the US open.  The post over the weekend outlined reasons a bullish leg had an opportunity to develop.

IS ES WEEKLY SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER BULL LEG? 5/19/12

 

 Today, the answer was yes...

 

 

IS ES WEEKLY SETTING UP FOR A BULL LEG 5/12/12

THE market has pulled back to test prior highs from last summer, May to July and PA trend lines. What is interesting is we are also in an area that can be a higher low support.  While the "trader on the street" may be seeing the sky falling, I sense smart $ is seeing opportunity.

RUN AND RETURN 5/18/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

OK, Facebook could not save the market.  Now we can get back to business.


The overnight action moved lower and found support around 93-94.  PA would run bullish but could not break the long BOT.  In fact, we had two failed attempts that produced LB Gaps.  We were not confident that the market could hold through the US Market.


[07:41] <CM> good morning (or night ) it has been an over night bonanza
[07:43] <CM> hard to say if us open will follow through but the bot targets today for us mkt 1311.25-07.25-02.25  (link deleted) prior buying at 93 area and 1301 has developed a bear channel and a bo of yday bear channel

A pre open LB attempt failed followed by B17-18 failure in the US Market.  Another weakness noted was the EMA holding close to the Mid BOT (not an arithmetic middle, i.e. (H-L)/2).  The Bear channel developed sending PA back to where we began.


Run and return,,,

A late pop at the end offered a quick CT trade for the longs, but it was the end of the day that was ending the week.  PA had decided to settle in the 1290-92 area.

PRE OPEN H&S BREAKS: BEAR CHANNEL SELL OFF 5/17/12

IN the Euro Zone ES developed a head and shoulder pattern that broke lower developing a bear channel sell off that hit BO15.

B1 and 2 were open sellers followed by the first pullback in B3, an opportunity to join the bear TL and selling channel.

B8-9 was a short BOT fade that was a bullish counter trend entry.  Side ways action followed and seller again pushed the Pa to the SB.

A failed channel break out (FCHBO) hit at B34-35 with a HL long at B38 back to the upper TL and a fade of the SB (also a lower high from 15-15 area).  These shorts continued with an EMA established as the resistance and a final end of day channel BO.

DOING THE MATH: IS TRADING FOR YOU?

IS trading for you?  It's a question everyone attempting to trade needs to seriously answer.  The chart above illustrates two monthly targets ($5000 and $2500).  A seemingly reasonable starting point; no get rich quick, earn as you learn, etc.


But on a closer look, small contract traders may need to trade multiple months to reach the target, and this assumes they learn to trade with a winning strategy before crashing their account.


If they can be successful and grow their account, then the targets could be reached on a "trade" basis rather than a month basis.


A goal to target is to accumulate 20 times your monthly take home pay.  $5000 per month time 20 is 100,000.  Earning 5% per month on your savings will equal, yes, the $5000 monthly take home pay.


At a margin rate of $500 per contract, $10,000 will be sufficient to trade 20 contracts, and you could set your trading to 10 contracts holding 10 in reserve.  Even at 10c's you would need 10 points per month to hit your target.  The balance of your savings is invested in equities etc per your individual requirements.


If you can take the time to learn trading, keep you risk in check, and let your account build, you will be able to trade more contracts with confidence and reach your monthly target.  Any extra, give yourself a raise or move it to other investments.


It takes time, patience, and study.


Some will look at this and not bother for 5000 or 2500.  But they would miss a very important point:  the 5000 is potentially one trade with 20 contracts ( a 5 point trade).  What they miss by exiting is the real question, "How many of these can you do in a month?"

RANGE RUN BO AND BACK AGAIN 5/16/12

TO understand the US market today, we need to look back to the Euro Zone range run and break out.  PA hit the long BOT at the open and ran for a BO5 before fading at the 7.5-8 point area,

A reversal signaled, and returned to the LB and a range run in the PM.  Essentially, back to where it started in the Euro Zone.

Bull channel early to a bear channel later...