Thursday, May 26, 2011

GOT BOTS? NOW WHAT?

If you have read any of the recent blog post, you are familiar with BOTS.  Normally, there is a long position and a short, and additional BOT ranges can develop intraday.  Today, extended range bars required a middle BOT.   We have the BOTs, now what?  what does the chart tell us about trading?


TODAY:  6E & ES


The day started with the long/short  BOTs set, and a middle target was added.  The extreme move in b5 should have suggested a short.  Even without the BOTs, you have a cross of the EMA  with a negative close-one below the EMA.  The ideal hold would be run with the trend until the EMA is challenged.

By 11-11:30 we see another BOT range.  Trade the long BOT, which also corresponds to the first bar to close EMA+.  The 12:45-1:15 consolidation is a valid exit.  Price breaks the EMA but fails above the long BOT, a bullish signal.



The ES had an extended pre-open bar, necessitating a middle BOT.  By b4-5 we can identify a bear TL.  Shorts will occur at/near this TL while longs will wait for a failure of the short BOT, which was near 1214.

A double bottom hits b20 at the 12.5 level, and begins a bullish channel.  Your options at this point:

  • enter again at the 1214 level.  You have a know loss potential back to 12.5.
  • enter the short BOT + (at or just above the BOT)
  • enter at an EMA+ value
  • enter a break of the bear TL
  • enter the middle BOT
  • enter the long BOT
At b20 you do not know if price will hit any of these targets.  But they are targets which should be of interest, and they are targets that should increase your confidence in the trade as each occurs. Each increasing the support level, and makes the bull (bear if it were declining) stronger.

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